U.S. Unlikely to Engage in Third War in the Taiwan Strait
Want Daily Editorial, October 16, 2023
According to a recent report released by the Strategic Posture Commission of the U.S. Congress, the United States may potentially have to engage in conflicts with both Russia and China simultaneously. The report emphasizes the need for preparedness, which includes expanding military capabilities, strengthening relationships with allied nations, and accelerating the modernization of nuclear weapons. As tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait and the Russia-Ukraine war leads to a deterioration in U.S.-Russia relations, this report from Congress is seen as a precautionary measure. While the report does not reveal any signs of cooperation between China and Russia in the realm of nuclear weapons, it does assert that "they may ultimately find a way to coordinate in a manner that puts us at a disadvantage.”
Prolonged War in Ukraine Wearing on U.S.
Additionally, General Charles Flynn, the commander of the U.S. Army's Pacific Region, indicated at a discussion held at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington that China's "aggressive, cunning, and irresponsible behavior" poses a challenge to the territorial and sovereign integrity of countries in the Indo-Pacific region. The cooperation between the United States and its regional allies' armies aims to ensure peace.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, coupled with the resurgence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has not caused the United States to underestimate the strategic situation in East Asia. The Hudson Institute in Washington recently hosted a seminar on U.S.-China competition, during which participant Robert Spalding, a retired brigadier general, suggested that the competition between the United States and China in ideological and economic domains resembles a second Cold War. He emphasized that countries wishing to be allies or partners of the United States must adhere to the same rules and regulations. He believes that without the inflow of talent and capital from the free world, China would not be what it is today, and the United States should take this as a lesson.
The administration of President Joe Biden, while emphasizing the need for cooperation, competition, and confrontation with China, has in practice seen more competition and confrontation than cooperation. This has provided strategic space for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration to adopt an "anti-China, pro-American" stance. However, following the war in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we should be concerned about whether the United States has the willingness and capability to handle a third war. The outbreak of conflicts demonstrated by the Hamas attack on Israel was unexpected. Taiwan cannot remain indifferent to this kind of sudden conflict outbreak.
During the Cold War, American strategic experts discussed whether the U.S. military could handle one and a half wars simultaneously. This referred to the idea of confronting the Soviet Union while also engaging in another conflict. Many experts at the time believed it would be difficult, and the American failure in the Vietnam War seemed to validate their assessment.
Currently, the United States is struggling to deal with the war in Ukraine. On September 30, President Biden signed a short-term funding bill passed by Congress, temporarily avoiding a government shutdown crisis. However, aid to Ukraine's budget was removed due to Republican insistence, reflecting growing impatience in American society with this prolonged war.
The war in Ukraine has been going on for over a year and a half, and American politicians are getting weary, concerned that it might strain the U.S. economy. There is a sense of urgency to bring it to an end. Now, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has reignited. While Israel should be capable of handling attacks from the Hamas organization, a strong counterattack could escalate the conflict into Syria and Lebanon, potentially giving Iran a reason to intervene. In order to prevent the regional crisis from escalating, the United States has dispatched two carrier strike groups to the Middle East. It's likely that this conflict in the Middle East won't be resolved in the short term, and the concern for the United States is whether they might be forced to intervene due to the situation.
Taiwan Must Be Prepared and Avoid Misjudgment
The United States may face two wars involving Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine. Taiwan cannot afford to be complacent, wishing that even if it challenges mainland China’s red lines, it won't lead to conflict under the protection of the U.S. military umbrella. Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng stated that a task force has been established, hoping to learn lessons from the attacks by Hamas militants, a radical organization in Palestine, on Israel. What lessons can Taiwan learn from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? According to Chiu, intelligence is the key to preventing war. With intelligence, preemptive measures can be taken, including preventing the outbreak of war.
The outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict this time provides valuable lessons from the failure of Israeli intelligence work. It is indeed worth exploring and learning from. However, the way to prevent conflicts between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait relies not only on the success of intelligence warfare and the strengthening of military power but, more importantly, on how to establish a consensus for peace between both sides. The DPP administration, however, is blindly pursuing Taiwanese independence and "de-Sinicization," cutting off cross-strait communication. This increases the likelihood of misjudgment, and this is where the crisis lies.
While the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen has sensed the crisis, even deliberately emphasizing the importance of peace and declaring that peace is the paramount agreement between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait in her National Day address this year, without accepting the “1992 Consensus”, the mainland is not receptive to such calls for peace. Mainland China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the State Council responded that while the DPP authorities talk about peace and engage in dialogue, they stubbornly adhere to the stance of Taiwan independence, refusing to acknowledge the “One China” principle and “1992 Consensus.” According to the TAO, the DPP’s two-faced approach cannot deceive the world, and their attempt at “peaceful separation” is nothing but a pipe dream.
With the Russia-Ukraine conflict and conflicts in the Middle East affecting the U.S.-China relationship, even though President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping intend to avoid further escalation of conflicts, the situation remains volatile. Under DPP governance, cross-strait relations will only worsen. The international political landscape is mired in uncertainty, and the deteriorating cross-strait relations increase the risk of uncertainty for Taiwan. To safeguard itself, Taiwan must actively work to prevent miscalculations arising from mutual distrust between the two sides of the strait.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20231016004410-262102